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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."