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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a resolute stance regarding Ukraine. After issuing warnings of "significant repercussions" during the summer should Russia's president persisted obstructing peace negotiations, Trump eventually enacted substantial restrictions on Russia's primary oil companies, these major energy companies. This decision significantly hindered the Russian leader's capability to fund his military invasion in the region.

However, through his latest comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian officials excluding Ukraine's or European input, Trump has clearly gone back to his pro-Putin approach.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's proposal would in practice reward the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while placing the country's democracy in danger. Despite strong statements that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal actually weaken that same independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business past, Trump persists to consider the war as a simple territorial dispute, like handing Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will please the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not merely about dominating a destroyed area of economically weakened land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious goal to eliminate it so it no longer serves as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the accountable governance that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Land Concessions

Although maintaining in position the presently divided oblasts of these areas, the initiative would compel the nation to give up the whole this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a decade of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously weakened.

The area is the location of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the entrenched protective structures that are a critical obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Putin a open way to Kyiv if he eventually choose to restart the conflict.

Military Limitations

Then, in a action that would make future conflict simpler for the Russian military, Trump would force the nation to reduce the numbers of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, the initiative places no similar limits on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people government as Nazis, Trump's proposal declares: "Any extremist ideology and practices must be rejected and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this point, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal sets no requirement that Putin endanger his regime by allowing elections in his own country.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "establish in law its position of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has violated comparable treaties in the history – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of captured land in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should anyone believe Putin on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on external protection assurances. While the initiative promises a "strong unified military response" if the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the specifics range from unclear to concerning. The proposal would not only prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude alliance nations from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Putin from restoring his diminished troops, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Reaction

Another side agreement reportedly would grant the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "serious, intentional, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an act of war endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a military response. But different from a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against additional invasion – the credibility of the side agreement would depend on the dedication of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to respond with force to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not